Outlook for Commercial Real Estate: Are We in the 9th Inning?

May 11, 2016

5/9/2016 | By Calvin Schnure | REIT.com

Many analysts have noted that increasing construction and high prices on commercial properties often presage a downturn in the sector, and have asked whether this cycle may be approaching the 9th inning. NAREIT research economists have examined data from several sources to shed further light on the risks that the sector may be approaching a correction.

One broad-based measure of construction activity is the Census Bureau series on construction put-in-place. Measured in billions of dollars (instead of millions of square feet, or units), these figures allow more directly a comparison across property types and over a period spanning more than two decades. To facilitate comparison with earlier periods, NAREIT adjusted all figures for inflation.

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